Y (From Worcester News)

Y

8:53am Thursday 22nd May 2008

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Today could be one of those days which are marked out by historians as signifying a great change in the political landscape.
If the Conservatives win the
by-election at Crewe and Nantwich today it will probably be seen in the future as the moment when their return to power became predictable. It would certainly be the first by-election since 1982 when the Conservatives would have won a seat from another party.
The national opinion polls are indicating a massive Conservative victory. Having recently canvassed in Crewe, I still find it hard to assess the final picture.
Although I would be surprised if there were not a substantial
swing to the Conservatives, this is a part of the country – at least with respect to Crewe – where Labour breathes and moves and has its being. It is where tribal loyalty to Labour is for many voters all that counts.
Nevertheless even in Crewe there are signs of something new going on which the most fleeting visitor to the area cannot help but notice. Labour voters are defensive and reluctant to reveal their support for their old party, just as Conservative voters were until recently.
There are physical signs of change as well. The large number of ‘for sale’ signs indicates the scale of home ownership and also of mobility, neither of which normally comes to mind as part of the make-up of a traditional Labour voter.
It is also the case that Conservative supporters have been putting up posters for Edward Timpson in a way that a few years ago would not have been the case. Significantly, the Liberal Democrats have not been as prominent as is their habit at by-elections.
For all these reasons I shall be watching the announcement tonight with bated breath. At least by the time that this page becomes someone’s fish and chip wrapping we will know the answer.
If Labour loses, Gordon Brown’s position will begin to look decidedly shaky. Whoever said politics is boring?