Health boss warns that swine flu "is likely" to return

4:40pm Friday 19th March 2010

By James Connell

A HEALTH boss says swine flu is “likely” to come back next year and could be far more dangerous than before.

Figures also show pregnant women and young children in Worcestershire, two of the groups most at risk from the flu, were less keen to have the vaccine than over 65s.

Dr Richard Harling, director of public health for NHS Worcestershire, said in a report delivered to a board meeting: “There is a high likelihood that the swine flu virus will re-emerge during the 2010/11 flu season. The situation remains uncertain and the virus may re-emerge before the usual flu season and/or mutate into a more dangerous form.

“It is now clear that deaths caused by swine flu overall have been lower than in previous pandemics and in some flu seasons.

“However, the disease has disproportionately affected young people, and this is where most deaths have occurred, particularly in those with pre-existing chronic illness.”

Take-up was low among pregnant women with only 14.9 per cent (572 women) of the 3,836 who were eligible having the vaccine.

Of the 18,732 under-fives not in a flu clinical risk group, 22.9 per cent (4,290 children) were vaccinated.

Of the 35,452 over 65s eligible for the vaccine, 41.6 per cent (14,748 people) had the vaccine.

The take-up was 36.2 per cent (14,566 people) among the 40,237 under 65s who were deemed vulnerable enough to be eligible for the vaccine.

The vaccines started arriving last October for frontline NHS staff and were delivered to GP surgeries across the county shortly afterwards.

Dr Harling said: “The greatest challenge is in convincing pregnant women of the need to have the vaccine.”

Tony Hadfield, a non-executive director, said at the meeting said he was “disappointed” at the low level of take-up of the vaccine among health service staff.

Among NHS Worcestershire staff, the jab has been given to 17.8 per cent of the 146 eligible doctors, 25.7 per cent of the 1,041 eligible nurses, 33.6 per cent of 420 clinical staff and 45.7 per cent of the 806 support staff.

The take-up was 41.8 per cent of the 376 eligible GPs and 26.5 per cent of the 260 nurses working at county GP surgeries.

In all cases take up of the swine flu vaccine was higher than the take up of the seasonal flu vaccine.

Dr Harling said: “The take up is broadly similar to elsewhere. I think the general lesson is that healthcare staff don’t like needles very much.”

Eighteen out of 60 GP surgeries in the county opted out of providing swine flu vaccines to housebound patients but NHS Worcestershire has since offered immunisation to all these patients, administering about 500 vaccines.

One GP practice, which has not been named by NHS Worcestershire, also opted out of immunising under fives, forcing NHS Worcestershire to set up extra clinics for these patients.

Flu activity nationally and in Worcestershire remains low. The National Pandemic Flu Service, which provided a dedicated website and call centres to tell patients if they had swine flu, closed in February.