BRITAIN is facing a milk production crisis this year as a result of the foot-and-mouth outbreak, according to research by First Milk, of Lower Wick, Worcester.

In the first survey of its kind, First Milk, which is Britain's largest farmer-owned dairy business, has contacted farmers across Britain to assess the detailed impact of foot-and-mouth on their milk production patterns.

The results predict a serious shortfall this winter, equivalent to two entire days' production in January alone.

"The milk industry is facing a cliff edge in the late autumn," said First Milk chairman John Duncan.

"Our work shows that current buoyant production levels - which have seen output stay ahead of last year despite the foot-and-mouth cull - will not be sustained into the winter."

The survey assessed the impact of reduced cattle numbers resulting from the foot-and-mouth cull, the effects of the suspension of the Over Thirty Months Scheme (OTMS) and disruption to cattle breeding services during the spring.

The OTMS scheme is where cows more than 30 monthsold are bought by the Government, but it was suspended during the foot-and-mouth crisis, leading to more milk-producing cows on farms.

However, it has been reinstated and once the backlog has been dealt with there will be a drop in the number of milk producing cows.

This, coupled with the fact that many farmers do not have the money or space to feed and shelter extra cattle during winter, will lead to the shortage.

"The UK has currently lost around five per cent of milk production through animals slaughtered due to foot and mouth," said Mr Duncan.

"This loss has been offset by the high number of cows which are stuck on farms and staying in milk as a result of the suspension of the OTMS. But farmers are telling us they cannot bear the costs of feeding and housing these extra cows through winter. As a result, we predict a sharp fall in production from the late autumn onwards."

He said many cows had missed planned inseminations during the early part of the foot-and-mouth outbreak.

"While this backlog has been cleared, many will come into milk much later than expected and this will add significantly to production difficulties."

He said the survey results were "very significant".

"This could have a serious effect on the whole industry and we are, therefore, extending our work to a far larger sample of farms this month to establish the full extent of the forthcoming problem. The results should be complete by early September."