I HAVE been predicting for a long time that Theresa May's days as Prime Minister are numbered but nearly a year on from the snap election, she has managed to stay in her post.

After her memorable conference speech last October, it appeared Conservative MPs were ready to make their move for a leadership contest. But she survived that.

In January there were reports that formal demands for a contest were regularly being sent to the 1922 committee chairman. However, she survived again, as the number of letters needed to trigger a contest - 48 - was not reached.

At the moment the government is in another serious crisis, with Home Secretary Amber Rudd facing calls to resign over the handling of the Windrush scandal.

Often the Westminster bubble around a scandal forgets the individuals caught up in it. A reminder that in this case there are believed to be more than 200 people who have suffered issues as a result of tightened UK immigration requirements.

Let's be in no doubt this is a national disgrace. How can it not be when British citizens are treated as illegal immigrants and threatened with deportation.

The fallout continued in Parliament on Monday, during a particularly heated session. Ms Rudd attempted to defuse the situation, stressing the Windrush generation would acquire the status that they deserve. But the issue has not gone away for her or the Prime Minister, who many have pointed out was the home secretary between 2010 and 2016 when issues first began to arise.

Although I don't see this as being the issue that leads to the PM leaving office, she will be associated with this mess and this could further damage her already fragile premiership.

Ultimately, the reason she remains in post is that Conservative backbench MPs have not moved to force a contest. At any point though that could easily change, history has showed us that.

The bookies favour that she will last the year, and leave in 2019. There remains a lot of uncertainty, but of course that is all part of politics.

Former British prime minister, Harold Macmillan, famously replied “events, dear boy, events" when asked what causes governments most trouble.

And as another former PM, Harold Wilson, once said, a week really is a long time in politics.