Westminster diary .

741. Kettle on the boil for breakfast as first report drops on BBC’s Today programme: confirmed 48 letters are in. Here we go. Helmet on.

750. Top Tory backbencher Sir Graham Brady pops up to say the vote will be - today - at 6pm. No messing about, then.

840. Amid the Twitter-storm, Nicola Sturgeon responds: “What a self-centred bunch they are. They all need to go, not just the PM." Politicians, self-centred? Surely not.

843. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox insists: “This is no time for the self-indulgent spasm of a leadership election.” True perhaps but there is one anyway.

845. PM emerges from behind the Downing St Christmas tree to tell the nation: "I will contest that vote with everything I've got.” But will it be enough?

932. Arrive at Westminster and already conspiratorial huddles are forming in corridors. The smell of toast wafts from the Members’ tea room. An omen?

951. Top Leaver says 100 is the key rebel number. “If it’s below 100, she’s safe; if it’s over 100 she’s a goner.” Toast, perhaps.

1025. An even grander Brexiteer tells me: “Disregard the payroll vote. Eighty is the key number as that’s half the backbench. If she can’t even get half her backbenchers, she can’t possibly survive.” We’ll see.

1115. Loyal minister says: “She should have done a Major[put up or shut up] a month ago. She’ll be safe I’m sure. When she wins, she should challenge Corbyn on him putting down a confidence vote in the Government. She should go before the cameras and tell him: ‘Bring it on.’ She’d have the initiative back.” Interesting.

1155. In the press gallery. Huge rafter-rattling roar as May enters chamber for PMQs. Philip is up in the public gallery, facing the PM. Moral support. Arms folded for much of another rowdy performance. Predictable barbs from Corbyn and Blackford. PM survives; for now.

1222. Ruth Davidson makes a rare intervention from her baby bubble to hail the PM’s metaphorical "cojones of steel".

1245. Unprompted, May’s spokesman stresses how today is not about who leads the Tories into the next election but on continuity during the Brexit process. Clear hint. If May wins, she’ll be gone by the spring post B-Day. Hint might be repeated at 1922 this evening to help boost the number of supporters. Message: she’s on her way anyway; departure now would create more turmoil; let’s keep her on til Brexit is out of the way.

1255. Corbyn’s aide declines to rule out Labour leader putting down confidence vote in Government on Thursday. Tells hacks, party leader will do it at moment of maximum effect. “Not if but when,” he declares. But when?

130. No time for lunch, again. SNP’s Blackford cancels regular post-PMQs press briefing as he chairs group party meeting. Are they up to something?

1418. Loyalists begin to rally round in earnest. Michael “the assassin” Gove appeals for loyalty. “If we don't support the PM, then we risk derailing or diluting Brexit.”

1526. Number-crunchers claim more than 158 Conservative MPs have publicly declared they will be supporting the PM. But to repeat: it’s a secret ballot.

1545. Emerges Burton MP Andrew Griffiths, who was suspended from the party in the summer over a series of suggestive text messages to two barmaids, has miraculously had the Tory whip restored. He’ll be backing the PM.

1708. PM arrives surrounded by her entourage and enters Committee Room 14 to muted cheers. Stifling committee corridor is packed with more than 100 hacks, waiting for some to commit news.

1725. Significant development. She tells MPs emotionally that “in my heart” she would like to lead the party to the 2022 General Election but knows she can’t. Which means post Brexit Day, she will be off.

2058. Sir Graham Brady, 1922 Chairman, strolls into crowded Committee Room 14. He stands and waits for the clock to hit 9pm. Pulls out an envelope and first declares the party still has confidence in the PM. MPs jump up cheer and applaud. He then reads out the numbers: 200 to 117. Worse than some had expected but enough to keep Mrs May in her job.

2105. Outside as MPs leave for their G&Ts a few have time to give hacks their views. The jolly Europe Minister Sir Alan Duncan sums up the loyalist move: “Job done. Move on.”

2110. But ardent Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, pointing out a third of Tory backbenchers rebelled, said it was a “terrible” result and called on his leader to resign.

2132. May appears again in Downing St to claim victory of sorts and insists time to "get on with job".

1051. Finish the mammoth copy and shut down the computer. That’s it; until the next chapter in the Brexit drama.