HEREFORDSHIRE can expect a record 17 per cent council tax rise next month. County treasurer Ian Hyson says an increase that puts the average (Band D) bill at around £950 is likely.

But that sum won't bring better services - it will simply maintain last year's level. The council says that's as good as it gets without pitching a percentage rise in the 20s.

Herefordshire Council already has a special budget panel scrutinising services for further savings. If councillors reject a double figure rise when they meet to set the rate on Friday, March 7, then schools, roads and leisure could be the biggest losers.

Small print in the £169.5m spending assessment the Government has given Herefordshire Council shows initial estimates of a six to eight per cent increase were too low.

The council's treasury team has upped that estimate to 17 per cent before precept - and the cabinet agrees.

So it is a "reasonable assumption" that cabinet will recommend 17 per cent, or somewhere close, to full council next month, says Mr Hyson.

"There is a reluctant acceptance of the reality."

Three-quarters of all council funding comes from Whitehall, and many authorities, Herefordshire included, are actively arguing that what they get is not enough.

Increase

At face value, the county has an extra £25m to spend on services over 2003/2004, around £107m of which is available as spending support grants, with council tax making up much of the difference.

But this has to be set against an increase in the level of council tax the government assesses as reasonable for Herefordshire Council to charge - £948 at Band D.

Where this figure goes up, sums the council can claim as financial support come down.

Late last year the council set up a budget panel to scrutinise services for savings with a six to eight per cent council tax rise in mind.

Now that has entered double figures, the only increase that the treasury says can keep services as they are - let alone allow for improvements.

The alternative sees spending on roads and leisure facilities in particular slashed.

Not even education would be exempt according to worst case scenarios at council HQ.

Only social services and care can realistically anticipate added investment as a priority.