THE chief executive of an organisation representing businesses across the county says the ending of furlough will be the "biggest test" and show the true picture of the pandemic recovery.

The furlough scheme closed yesterday and although widely praised for protecting jobs many forecasters, including the Bank of England, have said there could now be a rise in unemployment.

Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme workers who were furloughed were entitled to 80 per cent of their normal wages, capped at £2,500 per month, but the rules changed after August with the government paying 60 per cent and employers paying 20 per cent.

During the course of the pandemic 20,200 Worcester residents have, at some point, claimed on the job retention scheme, 12,400 Malvern residents and 23,200 from Wychavon, which includes Evesham and Droitwich residents.

In the latest HMRC figures, to the end of July, 2,210 people were still claiming furlough in Worcester, with manufacturing the most affected sector with 420 claiming furlough.

In Wychavon 2,770 residents claimed furlough, with the sector of wholesale and retail, including repair of motor vehicles, the most affected with 450 claiming.

And in Malvern 1,530 residents claimed furlough, with the sector of wholesale and retail also had the highest for furlough claims, with 230 claiming.

Among the county businesses who used the furlough scheme were the Morgan Motor Company, in Malvern, who told us in August they used it to "retain jobs and protect the long term business", and in April 2020 RGS Worcester said it had furloughed all staff that were not supervising children "to save costs".

Sharon Smith, chief executive of Herefordshire and Worcestershire Chamber of Commerce, said: "Without the unprecedented support package, businesses would have no doubt been forced to let staff go.

“Now the scheme has ended, this will be the biggest test yet of the true recovery and strength of the UK economy and just how much confidence businesses have managed to regain since restrictions were lifted.

"With employment figures expected to spike, government will need to look at how it can further support businesses who may now still struggle to keep their staff and ensure those who will be looking for work, find alternative employment as quickly as possible.

“New programmes such as the kickstart scheme have helped along the journey but we are yet to see where the longer-term labour market settles and the wider economic impacts of the end of the scheme.”

Mid-Worcestershire MP Nigel Huddleston said: "As we head along our path to recovery, it’s right that we turn the focus onto supporting people back into work. Latest figures show more employees on payrolls than before the pandemic, and with more than 1 million job vacancies, it’s the right time to end furlough and focus on Our Plan for Jobs."

Harriett Baldwin, West Worcestershire's MP, added “Now that nearly every one of my constituents has been offered a full vaccination, I feel now is the right time to end the scheme.

“The local economy is strong and we are all hearing of vacancies in a wide range of sectors. Anyone laid off as a result of furlough ending is able to either access the right support to retrain or find their way into a sector where there are plenty of vacancies.

“I’m keen to help anyone who has specific problems accessing the benefits system but locally the picture is that employment rates are returning to normal and the outlook remains positive.”